Data & Analytics
This is an ongoing analytics project looking at NHL referee decision-making — specifically whether penalty calls change when the game is on the line. The series starts with a simple question: do referees 'put the whistle away' in high-leverage situations? From there it gets into must-call penalties versus judgement calls, and what happens when you control for the penalties that have to be called regardless. All analysis built from publicly available NHL data.
Read on SubstackJun 5, 2026
Why is a penalty in November not a penalty in May?
The opening piece in the series. Do NHL referees call the game differently when the stakes are highest? This post lays out the core question and starts digging into whether penalty rates actually shift in high-leverage situations across the regular season and playoffs.
Read on Substack →Jun 8, 2026
What about the penalties that have to be called?
Not all penalties are created equal. Some calls are effectively mandatory — the referee has no real choice. This post separates must-call penalties from judgement calls and asks what the data looks like when you focus only on the discretionary ones.
Read on Substack →Jun 9, 2026
Searching for some consistency
What if we narrowed the lens even further and looked only at must-call penalties? This post tests whether removing discretionary calls from the analysis reveals a more consistent picture — or just raises more questions.
Read on Substack →Jun 12, 2026
The elimination game
What happens to penalty rates when a team's season is on the line? Using data from 840 games across 10 playoff seasons, this post looks at whether referees call elimination games differently — and the drop in power plays per 20 minutes is unlike anything else in the series.
Read on Substack →